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| Image/Marvel Studios |
After an opening weekend that literally asphalted the opening numbers of the previous two chapters (106 million nationwide in February), Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania collapsed in the following weeks, becoming a real flop for the MCU, since it may be the first film in the franchise to fall short of $500 million at the worldwide box office.
Within six weeks of release, it earned $470 million worldwide, but so did other Marvel films, including Black Widow ($379 million worldwide while also debuting on Disney+), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($432 million), and Eternals ($402 million). And definitely, Ant-Man isn't Marvel's A-list hero, like Doctor Strange or Thor, stars of two of Marvel's most recent movies, might be. More worryingly, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is unlikely to match Ant-Man 1 and 2's $519 million and $622 million, respectively.
With a production budget of $200 million and a marketing spend of at least $100 million, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania would need to gross around $600 million to break even in its theatrical run. Recent Marvel movies either got something of an amnesty for either losing the box office due to simultaneous distribution on Disney+ or showing at a time when people were more reluctant to go to the theaters, due to COVID concerns. However Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania can't use the same excuses. The only upside is that it could recoup some costs through home entertainment. Disney has not yet commented on this type of reflection on the film's box office.
"There's no question, audiences weren't happy with 'Ant-Man 3,'" says David A. Gross, who runs film consultancy Franchise Entertainment Research. “Superhero fans are very sympathetic to these stories, and it helps when the movies connect, which they almost always have. But in this case, it hurt.”
The box office numbers confirm this assessment. Marvel remains critical-proof in terms of opening weekend receipts, but its films are no longer immune to the subsequent crash. Word of mouth generally determines a film's "multiple," which in industry parlance is the ratio of its total gross since its debut. Most movies aim for a multiple of three or four. In the case of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, it will barely have two multiples at the domestic box office, a sign that interest has completely waned after it hits the big screen. By comparison, the first film had a multiple of 3.2 and the sequel had a multiple of 2.9.
In North America, Quantumania is hovering at $209 million, which is higher than the original Ant-Man ($180 million) but lower than the sequel Ant-Man and the Wasp ($216 million). While likely to catch up with its predecessor at the domestic box office, the third film is expected to bring in a superior earnings. After all, it debuted 40% earlier than the second installment.
“For Marvel, the bar is always so high that anything short of a grand slam home run at the box office is seen as underwhelming,” says Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst at Comscore. “With 'Ant-Man 3′, this year's highest-grossing film so far, it's possible fans are looking for a little more of the magic that has been a part of the Marvel brand for so many years and across so many great films. ”.
This year has been a tough one for comic book adaptations, a genre that is usually untouchable at the box office. Shazam has also slumped since opening in mid-March, earning a paltry sum of $46 million to date. The $110 million budget sequel, from Warner Bros. and DC, is shaping up to be one of the worst performers for a modern superhero movie.
Still, box office analysts aren't mourning superhero fatigue just yet — and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse look set to become the leaders at the summer box office. However, the findings signal a near future in which studios will no longer be able to theatrically release any huge-budget comic book adaptation with the expectation that it will turn into a box office hit. The real problem with Quantumania, however, is that the film has been accused, unfortunately rightly, of a lack of quality.
“The public is letting Marvel itself know that the standard is very high,” says Shawn Robbins, lead analyst at BoxOfficePro. “Goodwill does not survive without a periodic incentive of why it is there in the first place.”
Disney's Marvel Cinematic Universe still remains unrivaled in the current Hollywood landscape. It's a franchise that spawned 31 films over 15 years, all of which were released at No. 1. But already since the epic conclusion of 2019's Avengers: Endgame, which is the second highest-grossing film in history, cracks have begun to emerge. “Marvel's track record has been truly remarkable. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt,” Gross says. “Marvel is rarely wrong. But it happens regularly with all kinds of movies.”
It may be too early to draw any conclusions, but there is a concern because the latest Ant-Man had the lofty responsibility of kicking off Phase Five of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, as well as introducing Jonathan Majors' villainous Kang the Conqueror as the heir apparent to Thanos. Any decline in interest is problematic because Marvel films have thrived on their interconnected nature.
Ticket sales for Guardians 3, which debuts on May 5, should align more closely with the previous adventures led by Star-Lord and company, which have grossed $773 million and $863 million globally. But the upcoming threequel, directed by James Gunn, is the latest of Marvel's "blockbuster" blockbuster heirs to be officially announced.
The responsibility is shifting to the new heroes to pick up the slack. Upcoming installments, like The Marvels and Blade, center around lesser-known characters than Thor, Captain America, and Doctor Strange, all of whom became household names in the run-up to Avengers: Endgame. But to continue building in the post-"Endgame" era, movies can't simply rely on enthusiasm for what's come before. They'll need to be of sufficient quality to continue to attract ticket buyers beyond the opening weekend, introducing them to and emotionally engaging them in the fates of other vigilantes. According to Robbins: "That's what will make Phase 5 so important in the larger context of the MCU and its box office prowess."